351
FXUS66 KMTR 190628
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1128 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Typical summer-like pattern to persist through the weekend with
gradual warming trend for the first half of the upcoming week.
Nighttime low clouds will spread inland and then retreat back to the
coast by mid-to-late morning each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Satellite imagery shows stratus flowing inland from the coastal
regions, while offshore, an offshore boundary just coming into the
North Bay is eroding the stratus deck. The passage of a weak cold
front earlier today will contribute to some clearing overnight
and faster dispersal of the clouds Sunday morning. High resolution
models are suggesting that even the Monterey-Salinas region,
where the last two days have not seen any appreciable clearing of
the clouds, could scatter out before sunrise tomorrow, but the
fact that the observed satellite imagery is overperforming the
model expectations is limiting confidence. High resolution models
are also suggesting a chance for fog to develop in the North Bay
tonight into early Sunday morning. At this time, not enough
confidence in either scenario to change the forecast.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this afternoon ranging from
the upper 50`s to mid 60`s at the coast to upper 60`s to mid 70`s
across the interior (a few spots may reach into the upper 70`s).
This is as a weak, dry frontal boundary moves across the region.
Tonight, expecting less in the way of drizzle however cannot be
ruled out in typically favored locations. Temperatures overnight
will range from the mid 40`s to mid 50`s.

In wake of today`s frontal passage, expecting tomorrow to be
slightly warmer across the interior as low clouds will likely be
quicker to dissipate. Thus, tomorrow we should see more upper 70`s
inland while cooler conditions prevail near the coast (upper 50`s to
mid 60`s).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Sunday night, we are expecting a greater potential for coastal
drizzle across the San Francisco Peninsula and coastal areas of the
Central Coast. A gradual warming trend is expected from Monday into
Wednesday as the region remains between a ridge out over the Pacific
and troughing to the east-northeast. Therefore, expecting more of
the interior to reach the lower 80`s by Tuesday which is forecast to
be the warmest day of the week. Meanwhile, low stratus will keep
conditions cooler at the coast.

Toward the latter half of the week, look for deeper troughing to
directly impact the region. This will bring temperatures back below
seasonal averages by Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions, other than
overnight coastal drizzle, are expected to prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

IFR and MVFR CIGs last into the mid to late morning for most TAF
sites, but last longer for coastal areas and around the Monterey
Bay. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Widespread
VFR returns for the TAF sites into Sunday afternoon, but status
lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate to gusty winds
Sunday afternoon that last into the night. Coastal cloud cover moves
slightly inland Sunday evening, affecting SNS and MRY.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light to
moderate winds overnight with gusty westerly winds building into the
afternoon. Wind gusts will reduce into Sunday night, and become
moderate for the late night.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs last through early Sunday
afternoon with some moments of drizzle. CIGS recede back to the
immediate coast into the afternoon, leading to VFR at the TAF sites.
Winds stay light to moderate through the TAF Period. MVFR CIGs
return early Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 826 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

High pressure building in from the north will lead to increasing
northerly winds over the coastal waters this weekend and early
next week. Gale force gusts are likely north of Point Reyes
through at least Monday. Gale force conditions will begin to
spread southward over the outer waters later Sunday. Expect
hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building
winds throughout the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...MM

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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion