000
FXUS66 KMTR 030139
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
639 PM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 154 PM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023

A warming and drying trend will occur through the weekend with
less widespread coverage of late night and morning low clouds.
Temperatures return back to below seasonal averages early next
week with a low (10-20%) probability of rain showers and/or
thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 154 PM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023

The well defined marine layer in place overnight has mixed out
and allowed for mostly sunny conditions region-wide this this
afternoon. The exception is patchy stratus over coastal San Mateo
and Monterey counties. Otherwise, temperatures have warmed into
the 70s across the interior while upper 50s to mid 60s are being
reported as you near the coast/bays. These conditions are a result
of a mid/upper level ridge building inland into the central
California coast. Look for stratus to fill in near the coast
overnight, especially south of the Golden Gate with the clouds
spreading locally inland into the valleys of the Central Coast.
Meanwhile, many inland areas of the greater San Francisco Bay Area
will experience mostly clear conditions overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023

As the ridge of high pressure shifts inland through the weekend,
a warming trend will continue. The interior will see more
widespread 80s both Saturday and Sunday with the region`s hottest
locations peaking in the lower 90s. While some coastal clouds will
return each night, the cloud cover will be much less extensive
compared to the past week or so with any stratus quick to scatter
out.

Cooler conditions return Monday and persist into at least midweek as
troughing once again returns. The forecast ensembles are also coming
into better alignment with regards to an upper level low developing
and moving over southern California. If this track holds, sub-
tropical moisture would be wrapped up in the flow of the mid/upper
level low and pulled across central California. This pattern would
support a 10-20% probability of rain showers as early as Monday
morning but moreso Monday afternoon/evening into Tuesday.
Additionally, there is around a 10% probability of thunderstorms
with the atmosphere aloft becoming more unstable. All of this said,
the timing, strength and eventual track of this system will
determine the impacts across our region. As it stands now and if the
region does receive precipitation, amounts will range from 0.10"-
0.15". Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the details in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Westerly winds look to weaken into the late evening as stratus
moves inland over the Monterey Bay region, reducing CIGS into the
night. Stratus will move up the coast towards the SFO region, but
at this time, CIGs look to stay within VFR conditions, though
scattered to few low clouds may be present. Patchy fog expected to
develop near North Bay terminals in the mid morning hours of
Saturday, around 13Z. By the late morning, expecting most
terminals to return to VFR conditions with the exception of
Monterey Bay, just as onshore winds begin to increase and become
breezy, lasting through the early evening.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, though towards 13Z,
scattered to few low clouds look to move in. Not expecting to
reduce to MVFR CIGs at this time, with the highest chances around
40% near 13Z, but something to watch closely through the night.
Breezy to moderate westerly winds linger into the late night,
reducing to become light around the same time scattered low
clouds move in. By the mid to late morning, VFR conditions
prevail, with winds increasing into the afternoon out of the west
to become moderate again with occasional gusts.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR lasts through the night and well
beyond the TAF period. Towards 06Z, CIGs begin to lower and low
chances of IFR CIGs begin, with scattered low clouds developing
towards 13Z, but at this time have left IFR out of the TAF due to
low confidence. Nonetheless, something to keep an eye on. Winds
expected to be light throughout the night, increasing slightly
into the afternoon to become onshore and breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1030 AM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Winds will reduce into the afternoon. Gale force gusts will
return to the northern waters again late Saturday into Sunday.
Expect generally a strong northwest breeze to continue through the
weekend with windiest spots staying north of Pigeon Point. These
stronger winds are generating steep wind waves that are hazardous
to small craft.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ535-560.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ535-
     560.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ540.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ545-565-575.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...Murdock

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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion