411
FXUS66 KMTR 191252
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
552 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
...New UPDATE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
- Warmer and drier weather with light to moderate
offshore winds in the higher elevations through Tuesday.
- An increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents returns on
Monday, with the potential for high surf midweek.
- Slightly cooler conditions begin midweek with unsettled weather
to return Friday into the following weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
A Dense Fog Advisory has been hosted for the San Francisco
Peninsulaand down the San Mateo and Central Coast coastlines,
including the northern Salinas Valley. Patchy areas of dense fog
will result in sudden changes in visibility. Use your low beam
headlights, slow down, and be prepared for periods of hazardous
driving conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 214 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
(Today and tonight)
Stratus hugs most of the Bay Area and Central Coast coastlines this
morning, with fog and low clouds dipping into the Salinas Valley.
Visibilities have dropped at Half Moon Bay, Monterey, Salinas, and
Fort Ord, but the question remains: how long will they hold? The
shallow marine layer has started crack over the waters, with pockets
of clearing. The marine layer is expected to be around 500ft or
less, likely keeping the reduced visibilities and low cloud to the
coast. Should continued visibility of less than a quarter mile
continue, a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed this morning. Fog and
low cloud should mix out by mid to late morning, leading to a mostly
clear skies for much of the region. Temperatures will climb into the
mid to upper 70s for any of the Bay Area Valleys, while Central
Coast Valleys range from the low 70s near the coast to the mid 70s
to mid 80s for interior locations. Near the coast, or should you be
stuck under coastal clouds, highs will be range from the 60s to near
70 degrees.
Tonight, offshore winds will become more apparent, especially for
higher elevations across the Bay Area. Gusts should be around 20-30
mph and linger through Monday morning. This should keep the marine
layer at bay, generally 500 feet or less.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 214 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
(Monday through Saturday)
Quiet weather will continue into Tuesday as upper level ridging
nosing into California slowly retreats due to the a cut off low
moving into the region. Sensible weather generally remains the same,
with warmer temperatures and light offshore flow holding steady.
Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the pattern will begin to change with
flow becoming onshore and high temperatures dipping below their
seasonal averages for this time year. Temperatures moderate to near
normal or just below normal for the end of the week, with the marine
layer likely re-establishing to about 1000 to 2000ft.
After that, we turn our eyes to the much anticipated rain event.
Models and ensembles continue to favor rain across much of the
region; however, there are still quite a variability in the timing
of the system and its strength. Be sure to stay tuned to the
forecast and given the nice weather, now is the time to make sure
gutters are cleared, outdoor objects are secured, and debris over
storm drains are cleared.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 418 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Fog and low stratus is being observed across the immediate coast,
through the Golden Gate into the Berkeley region, and the Monterey
Bay region. A compressed marine layer should keep the stratus from
coming in too far inland, but stratus is moving towards OAK and
there is a moderate confidence that they will see fog and low
ceilings tonight. Fog should mix out later in the morning with a
light onshore breeze during the afternoon and evening hours. Towards
the evening, stratus development will once again be limited to the
immediate coast, especially south of HAF, with strong offshore flow
aloft resulting in a chance for LLWS across the North Bay and Bay
Area towards the end of the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO... Moderate to high confidence of VFR through the
TAF period with a very low but nonzero chance of fog developing at
the terminal this morning. Any fog or low stratus that develops
should mix out by around 17-18Z with breezy west winds in the
afternoon. Winds diminish in the evening, with strong offshore flow
aloft leading to LLWS concerns after midnight through the end of the
TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... LIFR stratus and fog is expected to linger
at the terminals through 17-18Z. Breezy onshore winds develop in the
afternoon, with moderate confidence of stratus returning to the
terminals as the winds diminish this evening. Confidence in stratus
timing is lower and it is possible that stratus stays right at the
edge of the terminals for a few hours this evening before moving
in.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 418 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Fresh to strong northwest breezes will develop through the day
with occasional gale force gusts across the northern outer waters.
A new northwest swell moves in tonight, combining with the wind
waves to build very rough conditions across the exposed coastal
waters. Moderate to rough seas persist across the outer waters
through the next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 546 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement will go into effect at 8PM tonight and
run through 8PM Monday evening as a long- period swell impacts
the Pacific coast. Never turn your back to the ocean! Swim near a
lifeguard if possible! If caught in a rip current, swim parallel
to shore until you escape its influence.
Additional beach hazards lurk in the forecast beyond Monday, when
another long period swell arrives. This may lead to another Beach
Hazards Statement or a High Surf Advisory possible depending on
how the forecast evolves.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ006-509-
528>530.
Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Monday evening
for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Monday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday
for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Monday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Monday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion